Forex Major Currencies Outlook ( Jan 02, 2018)
US banks were still closed for New Year’s Day and are set to reopen today.
Only the final manufacturing PMI reading is due, though, and no changes from the initial 55.0 figure are eyed. Other potential catalysts include updates on the tax reform package and overall market sentiment on the first trading day of the year.
The euro could also see a pickup in volatility as banks reopen today. Medium-tier reports namely Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI, as well as the final manufacturing PMI readings from Germany and France, are up for release today.
The pound is starting the first trading day of 2018 with a bang as the UK manufacturing PMI is due. A dip from 58.2 to 58.0 is expected, though, and this would reflect a slower pace of industry expansion. The focus might remain on Brexit updates and how these could impact the economy in the coming months.
Swiss banks are still on a holiday today, which could mean either consolidation for the franc or sensitivity to currency-specific factors. The franc might also take its cue from medium-tier euro zone data.
The yen could continue to see further consolidation or risk flows as Japanese banks remain closed for the holiday. With that, there are no major reports lined up from Japan and the currency could respond more to global bond yields or sentiment.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up some of their recent winnings towards the end of 2017 but could be off to a good start this year. However, Chinese PMI data released on December 31 printed a mixed picture, with a slight dip in manufacturing activity and an uptick in services. Caixin manufacturing PMI data is due today and a fall from 50.8 to 50.7 is expected.