Major Pairs Outlook 11/07/2017: Swissquote

EUR/USD – Strong selling pressures

• EUR/USD is biased to the downside after breaking hourly support at 1.1575 (27/10/2017 low). Hourly resistance is located at 1.1658 (30/10/2017 high). Expected to show some shortterm consolidation.

• In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/USD – Monitoring support at 1.3000

• GBP/USD is back towards support given at 1.3027 (06/10/2017 low). String resistance is given at 1.3338 (13/10/2017 high). Expected to show continued decline.

• The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY – Ready for another leg higher

• USD/JPY is edging higher above resistance at 114.49 (11/07/2017 high). Support is located at 111.12 (20/09/2017 low).

• We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

USD/CHF – Holding around parity

• USD/CHF is consolidating. Yet, the technical structure is still bullish. The technical structure suggests an improving short-term buying interest. Expected to show continued bullish momentum. Hourly support stands at 0.9951 (01/11/2017 low).

• In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favors nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD – Weakening

• USD/CAD is weakening after set-up a resistance at 1.2917 (27/10/2017 low). This suggests an extension of bullish momentum. Hourly support lies at 1.2331 (26/09/2017 high). Expected to show continued short-term bearish pressures.

• In the longer term, the pair has broken long-term support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

AUD/USD – Room for further downside

• AUD/USD is ready to bounce back but downside pressures are still lively. Hourly resistance is given at a distance at 0.7897 (13/10/2017 high). Expected to show renewed pressures towards key support at 0.7571 (05/07/2017 low).

• In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/GBP – Continued consolidation

• EUR/GBP is consolidating after the sharp increase. As long as prices are below the resistance at 0.9046 (05/09/2017 high), the shortterm technical structure is biased to the downside. Hourly support is given at a distance at 0.8733 (01/11/2017 low).

• In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level).

EUR/CHF – Profit-taking

• EUR/CHF is back within former uptrend channel. Support is given at 1.1610 (27/10/2017 low). Rising channel suggests further bullish momentum.

• In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB’s QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

Gold – Range-trading

• Gold remains weak. The technical structure confirms a longer consolidation phase. Support lies at a distance at 1251 (08/08/2017 high). Resistance is now located at 1288 (20/10/2017).

• In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Silver – Short-term buying pressures

• Silver is heading higher. Hourly support can be found at 16.60 (27/10/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 17.46 (13/10/2017 high). Additional support can be found at 16.13 (06/10/2017 low).

• In the long-term, the trend is rater negative. Further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Crude Oil – Strong buying demand

• Crude oil has surged and set up a new resistance at 56.28 (06/11/2017 high). The commodity is trading at 1-year high. Expected to show further shot-term bearish consolidation. Indeed the technical structure has a history of decent consolidation phase.

• In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside momentum. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

Bitcoin – Continued consolidation

• Bitcoin is now consolidating after setting-up a new all-time high for 4 consecutive days. The technical structure shows a tremendous positive short-term momentum. Hourly support can be located at 6027 (30/10/2017 low). Strong support stands very far at 2975 (22/08/2017 low). In the short-term, the digital currency should continue rising.

• In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $10,000.

 

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